So, now you're rich, right?

 My latest post was delayed.  As I mentioned at the top, because I wanted to crow about how rich Tesla has made me.  Hmm.  Time to fess up.  It has been an utter nightmare, so far.  

It started nicely.  I bought a couple of call options in June of 2021, just before the stock went on a epic tear.  So, I bought more, and the more still, ultimately accumulating a net long position of 17 options.  That's a lot.  And, at one point, I was basking in a 10-Y paper gain (my Y had cost $60,000, so ten Teslas).  Then, the effects of coordinated short-selling and yet another Black Swan (this time the Russian invasion of Ukraine) combined to topple the price of a Tesla share to last Friday's 795.  Now I'm down three Y's, again on paper.  This occasioned a lot of portfolio shifting to maintain liquidity in the IB account.  No particular problem, as the rich returns in EPD left plenty of wiggle room.  

So today, I am staring at the exact kind of inflection point I've extolled in the past. Blood in the streets, panic everywhere, and yet a radiant future for the brave.  Why?  Because none of these external events have had any material effect on Tesla's prospects.  If anything, they are brighter than ever.  Why? This very month, Tesla will begin producing cars in two brand-new factories in Berlin and Austin.  The company is also doing a massive expansion in Shanghai.  While Elon is announcing a goal of 50% annualized growth to 2030, the actual results are FAR higher, more like 75%.  In the midst of raising prices steadily (the long-range Y I bought in 2020 is up about $10,000 in price), the company's wait lists have ballooned, in some cases to over a year.  Tesla just decided to prioritize deliveries to customers who purchase Full Self Driving (God I hate that misleading term!) for an additional $12,000.  That's pure profit, bringing the company's profit to over 50% of each vehicle sold!

The stark fact is that one company, and only one, makes a real profit selling electric vehicles: Tesla.  Everyone else stumbles along selling at a loss (every US and European maker) or at cost (the Chinese makers).  Only Tesla has achieved true economies of scale; the rest are just starting the excruciating climb.  

The lastest calamity (anyone else noticing that the pace of black swans is picking up?) has done almost nothing to damage Tesla's prospects.  The relatively small effects on its supply chain only improve its position relative to the pitty-patting herd.  Every instinct finely honed by decades of ups and downs (yes, feel free to chortle) tells me this is one of those rare moments of no-brainer opportunity.  Tesla around $800/share is a screaming bargain.  The fact that I was early (again, chortle permitted) makes it hard to double-down at these lows, but any kind of sustained recovery will free up liquidity.